Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.92 – 169.6

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.4 ±8.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 11.29Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 111.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 83.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±10.4

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 37.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 73.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 57.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 238, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 238, 2713

Auto

42.9 21%

Teleop

107.0 53%

Endgame

52.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 4311, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 4311, 151

Auto

18.7 12%

Teleop

83.5 56%

Endgame

48.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.9pts

Blue projected score169.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.3
Score range: 143–233
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.4Season APEX387.8

42.9Auto18.7

107Teleop83.5

52.4Endgame48.1

54Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	25
teleop	163	64
endgame	63	12
foul	10	15
total	304	116

Result

Final score

304 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 pts

Match videos

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