Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.22 – 204.87

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480 ±11.2

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 78.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 20.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 101.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.4 ±10.5

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 44.73Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 76.02Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 84.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1058, 246, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 246, 2423

Auto

46.3 24%

Teleop

113.4 60%

Endgame

30.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 69, 1922, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 1922, 3566

Auto

17.9 9%

Teleop

118.9 63%

Endgame

52.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.2pts

Blue projected score204.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 174–232
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480Season APEX462.4

46.3Auto17.9

113.4Teleop118.9

30.1Endgame52.9

40Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	28
teleop	65	53
endgame	32	52
foul	5	10
total	167	143

Result

Final score

167 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 48 pts

Match videos

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