Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.49 – 198.98

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.4 ±8.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 19.03Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 119.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 92.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.4 ±10.5

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 41.33Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 74.59Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 83.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 238, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 238, 2713

Auto

54.9 25%

Teleop

115.5 52%

Endgame

52.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 69, 1922, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 1922, 3566

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

113.6 60%

Endgame

53.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score199pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.5
Score range: 170–260
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.4Season APEX462.4

54.9Auto21.1

115.5Teleop113.6

52.6Endgame53.8

17Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	24
teleop	131	27
endgame	17	23
foul	50	0
total	278	74

Result

Final score

278 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Match videos

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