Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.41 – 198.54

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.4 ±10.5

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 42.19Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 74.43Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 83.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.9 ±10.5

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 16Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 79.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 102.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 69, 1922, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 1922, 3566

Auto

21.3 11%

Teleop

111.1 59%

Endgame

57.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6731, 1058, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6731, 1058, 2423

Auto

42.3 22%

Teleop

100.8 54%

Endgame

45.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.4pts

Blue projected score198.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 170–229
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.4Season APEX470.9

21.3Auto42.3

111.1Teleop100.8

57.5Endgame45.3

29Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	59
teleop	129	18
endgame	28	36
foul	10	0
total	187	113

Result

Final score

187 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Match videos

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