Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.47 – 183.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±10.5

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 90.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 40.11Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 125.34Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.4 ±10.5

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 36.35Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 68.64Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 78.46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 5459, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 5459, 133

Auto

47.0 20%

Teleop

138.9 60%

Endgame

47.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 69, 1922, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 1922, 3566

Auto

20.4 12%

Teleop

101.3 59%

Endgame

49.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255.5pts

Blue projected score183.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72
Score range: 155–283
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.1Season APEX462.4

47Auto20.4

138.9Teleop101.3

47Endgame49.4

5Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	29
teleop	135	163
endgame	53	107
foul	0	0
total	249	299

Result

Final score

249 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 61 pts

Match videos

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