Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.31 – 80.77

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.9 ±11.7

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 107.04Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 64.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 28.97Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±12.4

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 29.23Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 9.54Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 3566, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 3566, 1721

Auto

23.3 15%

Teleop

95.6 62%

Endgame

36.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9443, 5563, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9443, 5563, 238

Auto

21.0 26%

Teleop

37.5 47%

Endgame

20.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.3pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.5
Score range: 57–224
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.9Season APEX434.8

23.3Auto21

95.6Teleop37.5

36.4Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	39	42
endgame	40	47
foul	0	0
total	92	107

Result

Final score

92 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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