Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.28 – 114.21

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±13.9

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -5.56Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 18.72Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 1.12Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.5 ±12.4

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 78.04Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 2.13Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 34.04Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3205, 9443, 4169

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 9443, 4169

Auto

7.3 49%

Teleop

1.9 13%

Endgame

5.6 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1058, 10912, 6367

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 10912, 6367

Auto

30.4 30%

Teleop

43.9 43%

Endgame

28.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.3pts

Blue projected score114.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.9
Score range: -13–141
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 150.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.2Season APEX398.5

7.3Auto30.4

1.9Teleop43.9

5.6Endgame28.3

60Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	48
teleop	7	32
endgame	8	27
foul	5	20
total	29	127

Result

Final score

29 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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