Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.78 – 106.28

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.2 ±10.5

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 75.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 25.76Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 11.13Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±12.8

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 83.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.95Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 13.7Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2713, 11483, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 11483, 6731

Auto

25.7 26%

Teleop

56.8 57%

Endgame

17.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3566, 10156, 97

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3566, 10156, 97

Auto

19.3 21%

Teleop

55.8 61%

Endgame

16.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.8pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.5
Score range: 79–140
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 150.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.2Season APEX243.2

25.7Auto19.3

56.8Teleop55.8

17.8Endgame16.4

21Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	32
teleop	83	73
endgame	66	7
foul	25	15
total	189	127

Result

Final score

189 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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