Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.27 – 51.36

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±11.1

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 42.03Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 12.2Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 18.04Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.9 ±13.9

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 8.02Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 28.12Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 15.22Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5459, 433, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5459, 433, 5735

Auto

11.8 19%

Teleop

25.8 41%

Endgame

25.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 2084, 1761

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 2084, 1761

Auto

9.0 16%

Teleop

32.1 57%

Endgame

15.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 24–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.8Season APEX215.9

11.8Auto9

25.8Teleop32.1

25.7Endgame15.4

52Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	32	17
endgame	15	25
foul	0	0
total	64	54

Result

Final score

64 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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