Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.74 – 111.85

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 898.7 ±8.1

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 75.76Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 169.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 108.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.7 ±12.2

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 60.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 43.94Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 7.02Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1922, 125, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1922, 125, 238

Auto

37.9 11%

Teleop

222.0 62%

Endgame

100.5 28%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4761, 69, 5563

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 69, 5563

Auto

18.6 18%

Teleop

54.9 53%

Endgame

30.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score353.7pts

Blue projected score111.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.9
Score range: 85–381
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

898.7Season APEX301.7

37.9Auto18.6

222Teleop54.9

100.5Endgame30.4

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	10
teleop	188	105
endgame	113	38
foul	30	10
total	381	163

Result

Final score

381 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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