Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.38 – 195.53

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.2 ±9.8

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 167.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 25.86Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 98.3Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±11.2

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 79.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 94.47Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 22.02Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 3958, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 3958, 2423

Auto

49.4 17%

Teleop

171.7 60%

Endgame

67.4 23%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4311, 88, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 88, 4546

Auto

24.0 13%

Teleop

106.2 59%

Endgame

48.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.4pts

Blue projected score195.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.9
Score range: 169–318
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.2Season APEX518.8

49.4Auto24

171.7Teleop106.2

67.4Endgame48.8

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	39
teleop	166	77
endgame	87	27
foul	35	10
total	336	153

Result

Final score

336 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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