Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.61 – 169.79

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.5 ±13.3

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 17.52Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 18.18Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 46.91Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.4 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 14.3Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 140.48Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 15.01Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 97, 1761, 69

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 97, 1761, 69

Auto

18.1 24%

Teleop

41.3 55%

Endgame

16.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 133, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 133, 433

Auto

16.4 10%

Teleop

102.0 64%

Endgame

41.6 26%

Strengths

· 133 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score169.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.2
Score range: 56–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.5Season APEX342.4

18.1Auto16.4

41.3Teleop102

16Endgame41.6

15Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	9
teleop	17	82
endgame	8	42
foul	5	0
total	48	133

Result

Final score

48 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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