Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.43 – 177.78

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.6 ±11.2

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 163.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -6.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 75.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.3 ±12

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 2.84Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 6.78Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 168.16Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 4169, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 4169, 4311

Auto

27.2 13%

Teleop

122.6 58%

Endgame

63.2 30%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10912, 5563, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 5563, 125

Auto

24.3 13%

Teleop

117.9 63%

Endgame

43.9 24%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.4pts

Blue projected score177.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.7
Score range: 151–259
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.6Season APEX484.3

27.2Auto24.3

122.6Teleop117.9

63.2Endgame43.9

37Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	56
teleop	170	7
endgame	76	106
foul	0	15
total	272	184

Result

Final score

272 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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