Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.2 – 149.94

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.1 ±11.7

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 26.77Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 25.03Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 27.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.7 ±11.7

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 28.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 15.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 105.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11483, 4546, 3958

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11483, 4546, 3958

Auto

-0.6 0%

Teleop

25.0 50%

Endgame

26.0 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 246, 5735, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 5735, 238

Auto

33.5 22%

Teleop

80.1 52%

Endgame

39.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score149.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.7
Score range: 52–177
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.1Season APEX453.7

-0.6Auto33.5

25Teleop80.1

26Endgame39.5

10Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	18	104
endgame	7	42
foul	10	20
total	57	190

Result

Final score

57 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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