Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.82 – 121.46

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467 ±12.4

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 18.15Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 30.37Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 72.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.3 ±11.2

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 6.6Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 47.19Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 67.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 6367, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 6367, 1922

Auto

12.4 11%

Teleop

61.4 55%

Endgame

38.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 78, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 78, 2713

Auto

36.1 30%

Teleop

59.1 50%

Endgame

23.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score121.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 94–148
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467Season APEX504.3

12.4Auto36.1

61.4Teleop59.1

38.5Endgame23.7

42Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	61
teleop	77	128
endgame	53	15
foul	10	0
total	156	204

Result

Final score

156 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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