Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.78 – 99.91

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

368 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.5 ±10.7

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX -5.35Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 148.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 79.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±12.2

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 11.32Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 72.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 16.11Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5563, 5813, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 5813, 2877

Auto

42.9 19%

Teleop

118.1 53%

Endgame

62.0 28%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6731, 4311, 10156

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6731, 4311, 10156

Auto

1.6 2%

Teleop

50.5 64%

Endgame

26.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.8pts

Blue projected score99.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.9
Score range: 73–250
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.5Season APEX323.9

42.9Auto1.6

118.1Teleop50.5

62Endgame26.8

104Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	13
teleop	207	62
endgame	72	53
foul	15	0
total	368	128

Result

Final score

368 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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