Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.84 – 41.75

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±11.2

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 26.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 41.31Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 82.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±11.2

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -4.53Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 31.13Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 15.15Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4546, 2876, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 2876, 1058

Auto

39.4 29%

Teleop

74.5 55%

Endgame

22.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 11483, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 11483, 433

Auto

-5.0 0%

Teleop

10.8 68%

Endgame

10.0 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.8pts

Blue projected score41.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.1
Score range: 15–177
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.7Season APEX242.9

39.4Auto-5

74.5Teleop10.8

22.2Endgame10

14Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	88	8
endgame	37	2
foul	0	5
total	143	28

Result

Final score

143 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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