Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.98 – 244.42

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.7 ±11.2

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 65.59Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 69.83Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 19.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±10.5

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 37.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 174.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 78, 1922, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 1922, 4546

Auto

22.6 15%

Teleop

93.0 62%

Endgame

33.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 69, 2876, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 2876, 5813

Auto

43.4 18%

Teleop

141.8 60%

Endgame

50.2 21%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155pts

Blue projected score244.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.4
Score range: 126–273
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.7Season APEX463.3

22.6Auto43.4

93Teleop141.8

33.8Endgame50.2

44Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	47
teleop	104	172
endgame	20	43
foul	10	15
total	162	277

Result

Final score

162 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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