Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.79 – 196.55

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±12.2

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 36.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 4.03Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 20.34Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.9 ±9.8

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 55.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 63.74Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 77.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 78, 5735, 6367

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 5735, 6367

Auto

19.4 46%

Teleop

7.2 17%

Endgame

15.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 1922, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 151, 1922, 3566

Auto

23.8 12%

Teleop

117.3 61%

Endgame

51.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score196.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.8
Score range: 34–224
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.4Season APEX501.9

19.4Auto23.8

7.2Teleop117.3

15.7Endgame51

30Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	44
teleop	107	143
endgame	47	83
foul	0	5
total	182	275

Result

Final score

182 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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