Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.63 – 190.99

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±9.9

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 99.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 45.4Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 10.01Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.3 ±11.2

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 106.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 66.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.19Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 238, 5459, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 238, 5459, 6201

Auto

31.3 23%

Teleop

68.5 50%

Endgame

36.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 2713, 97

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2423, 2713, 97

Auto

50.1 27%

Teleop

101.0 54%

Endgame

34.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.6pts

Blue projected score191pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 129–217
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.4Season APEX460.3

31.3Auto50.1

68.5Teleop101

36.7Endgame34.7

36Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	42
teleop	101	105
endgame	60	50
foul	5	0
total	202	197

Result

Final score

202 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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