Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.97 – 36.54

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.4 ±11.2

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 68.49Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 41.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 2.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±13.9

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 9.13Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX -2.7Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 30.11Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1058, 4761, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 4761, 8626

Auto

38.3 34%

Teleop

70.3 63%

Endgame

3.8 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1761, 5563, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 5563, 4546

Auto

11.4 29%

Teleop

5.4 14%

Endgame

22.2 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score36.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 11–138
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.4Season APEX268.7

38.3Auto11.4

70.3Teleop5.4

3.8Endgame22.2

54Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	15
teleop	177	17
endgame	51	10
foul	15	5
total	292	47

Result

Final score

292 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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