Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.4 – 168.81

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.3 ±11.2

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 34.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 43.02Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 24.83Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.2 ±12.4

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 22.54Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 156.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -10.24Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 246, 3958, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 3958, 433

Auto

9.9 10%

Teleop

55.2 58%

Endgame

29.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10156, 5813, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 5813, 3205

Auto

29.5 17%

Teleop

106.3 61%

Endgame

37.7 22%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.4
Score range: 76–195
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.3Season APEX453.2

9.9Auto29.5

55.2Teleop106.3

29.3Endgame37.7

37Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	24	98
endgame	11	36
foul	0	5
total	49	150

Result

Final score

49 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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