Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.02 – 30.52

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.1 ±9.3

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 67.77Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 107.08Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 38.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.4 ±13.9

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 19.72Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 12.23Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -1.43Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1922, 88, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1922, 88, 11483

Auto

9.6 5%

Teleop

124.7 67%

Endgame

52.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6367, 1721, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6367, 1721, 9443

Auto

9.1 48%

Teleop

-18.5 0%

Endgame

28.5 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score30.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.5
Score range: 4–240
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.1Season APEX184.4

9.6Auto9.1

124.7Teleop-18.5

52Endgame28.5

36Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	8
teleop	114	17
endgame	34	17
foul	5	0
total	182	42

Result

Final score

182 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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