Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.47 – 123.11

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.6 ±11.7

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 7.53Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 161.97Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 49.97Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±11.7

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 26.35Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 47.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 49.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 5813, 5459

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 5813, 5459

Auto

45.7 22%

Teleop

105.4 52%

Endgame

53.4 26%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6367, 4761, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6367, 4761, 2876

Auto

23.9 23%

Teleop

54.4 52%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.5pts

Blue projected score123.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.4
Score range: 97–245
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.6Season APEX324.5

45.7Auto23.9

105.4Teleop54.4

53.4Endgame26.7

49Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	12
teleop	89	14
endgame	12	14
foul	25	30
total	171	70

Result

Final score

171 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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