Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.54 – 27.18

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±11.7

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 43.54Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX -0.97Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 85.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.6 ±12.4

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -1.35Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 2.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 25.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 69, 1721, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 1721, 238

Auto

21.6 17%

Teleop

78.2 60%

Endgame

30.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9443, 6201, 246

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9443, 6201, 246

Auto

18.1 68%

Teleop

3.9 15%

Endgame

4.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.5pts

Blue projected score27.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.4
Score range: 1–155
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.1Season APEX322.6

21.6Auto18.1

78.2Teleop3.9

30.8Endgame4.5

50Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	4
teleop	107	24
endgame	71	28
foul	0	0
total	212	56

Result

Final score

212 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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