Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.53 – 126.44

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.4 ±12.4

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 9.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 23.2Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 89.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±11.7

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 27.67Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 23.18Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 75.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10156, 246, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 246, 2713

Auto

33.9 30%

Teleop

59.9 54%

Endgame

17.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2084, 5735, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 5735, 1058

Auto

23.1 19%

Teleop

68.3 55%

Endgame

32.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score126.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 93–155
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.4Season APEX391

33.9Auto23.1

59.9Teleop68.3

17.8Endgame32.7

88Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	14
teleop	102	46
endgame	10	23
foul	5	0
total	160	83

Result

Final score

160 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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