Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.88 – 43.11

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 113.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±10.4

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 52.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 119.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 15.39Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.9 ±11.7

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 26.95Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 5.97Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 10.19Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4311, 133, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 133, 11483

Auto

7.1 4%

Teleop

136.2 69%

Endgame

52.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 433, 6731, 10912

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 6731, 10912

Auto

8.7 19%

Teleop

25.6 55%

Endgame

11.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.9pts

Blue projected score43.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 17–214
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.7Season APEX246.9

7.1Auto8.7

136.2Teleop25.6

52.9Endgame11.9

70Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	10
teleop	143	28
endgame	78	0
foul	185	0
total	409	38

Result

Final score

409 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 113.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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