Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.63 – 243.31

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

251 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 88 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.2 ±9.3

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 36.49Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 62.63Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 58.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.4 ±9.4

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 146.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 37.1Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 59.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 1058, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 1058, 2713

Auto

42.9 29%

Teleop

86.8 59%

Endgame

17.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 78, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 78, 151

Auto

33.0 15%

Teleop

150.1 67%

Endgame

42.3 19%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.6pts

Blue projected score243.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.7
Score range: 132–269
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.2Season APEX637.4

42.9Auto33

86.8Teleop150.1

17.8Endgame42.3

38Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	63
teleop	121	185
endgame	72	73
foul	5	5
total	251	326

Result

Final score

251 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 88 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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