Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.72 – 118.5

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±13.9

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 44.63Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 21.01Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 1.08Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.5 ±11.2

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 47.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 10.73Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 60.25Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2084, 10156, 5563

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 10156, 5563

Auto

2.6 4%

Teleop

52.3 78%

Endgame

12.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 97, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 97, 1922

Auto

9.6 9%

Teleop

62.1 60%

Endgame

31.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.7pts

Blue projected score118.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 41–145
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 142.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.9Season APEX438.5

2.6Auto9.6

52.3Teleop62.1

12.4Endgame31

110Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	28
teleop	29	110
endgame	31	64
foul	0	0
total	69	202

Result

Final score

69 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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