Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.62 – 139.17

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±11.2

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 114.71Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 87.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 12.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.5 ±11.7

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 11.4Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 75.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 52.38Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 3566, 4169

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 3566, 4169

Auto

37.2 20%

Teleop

116.2 61%

Endgame

36.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1761, 2877, 5459

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 2877, 5459

Auto

27.2 24%

Teleop

48.7 44%

Endgame

35.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.5
Score range: 113–241
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.6Season APEX427.5

37.2Auto27.2

116.2Teleop48.7

36.4Endgame35.5

70Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	32
teleop	75	72
endgame	17	42
foul	20	5
total	146	151

Result

Final score

146 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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