Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.15 – 122.42

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 74.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±12.2

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 136.72Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 10.31Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±11.2

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX -0.32Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 20.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 102.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 133, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 133, 3205

Auto

20.9 12%

Teleop

117.6 66%

Endgame

38.4 22%

Strengths

· 133 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 4546, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 4546, 2423

Auto

25.0 22%

Teleop

55.3 48%

Endgame

35.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.2pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 96–189
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.6Season APEX409.6

20.9Auto25

117.6Teleop55.3

38.4Endgame35

69Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	46
teleop	37	89
endgame	20	34
foul	0	5
total	66	174

Result

Final score

66 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 74.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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