Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.01 – 322.57

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.9 ±12.8

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 0.64Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 11.3Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX -0.93Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 728.9 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 130.11Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 39.63Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 152.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 11483, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

11 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 11483, 1721

Auto

10.1 83%

Teleop

-12.2 0%

Endgame

14.2 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 4761, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 4761, 5813

Auto

34.7 11%

Teleop

214.7 66%

Endgame

74.3 23%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11pts

Blue projected score322.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -311.6
Score range: -14–348
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.9Season APEX728.9

10.1Auto34.7

-12.2Teleop214.7

14.2Endgame74.3

120Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	71
teleop	34	263
endgame	17	102
foul	0	0
total	54	436

Result

Final score

54 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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