Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.33 – 142.77

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.3 ±12.4

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 46.87Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 95.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 13.53Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.7 ±9.8

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 34.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 49.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 58.31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2084, 238, 6367

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 238, 6367

Auto

17.0 12%

Teleop

87.7 63%

Endgame

33.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 78, 4311, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 4311, 1058

Auto

33.1 26%

Teleop

67.8 53%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.3pts

Blue projected score142.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.6
Score range: 118–181
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.3Season APEX578.7

17Auto33.1

87.7Teleop67.8

33.9Endgame26.7

31Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	39
teleop	90	127
endgame	36	15
foul	20	0
total	174	181

Result

Final score

174 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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