Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.98 – 75.71

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±11.7

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 23.18Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 25.35Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 125.45Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±13.3

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 15.11Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 51.89Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 8.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 10156, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10156, 88

Auto

42.1 24%

Teleop

95.9 55%

Endgame

37.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3205, 5459, 10912

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 5459, 10912

Auto

9.2 19%

Teleop

25.6 52%

Endgame

14.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.3
Score range: 51–199
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.5Season APEX276.4

42.1Auto9.2

95.9Teleop25.6

37.6Endgame14.4

58Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	101	33
endgame	19	8
foul	5	5
total	148	64

Result

Final score

148 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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