Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.58 – 171.55

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±13.3

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 11.07Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 16.21Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 9.3Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.3 ±11.7

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 9.36Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 64.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6731, 97, 5563

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6731, 97, 5563

Auto

12.0 33%

Teleop

9.4 26%

Endgame

15.4 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 2423, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 2423, 4761

Auto

27.5 16%

Teleop

96.7 57%

Endgame

46.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.6pts

Blue projected score171.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135
Score range: 8–201
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.9Season APEX318.3

12Auto27.5

9.4Teleop96.7

15.4Endgame46.2

22Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	7	60
endgame	16	29
foul	0	0
total	40	108

Result

Final score

40 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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