Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.93 – 46.14

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.5 ±12

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 131.45Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 45.15Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 16.33Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±12.8

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 14.36Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 29.55Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 2.23Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 2084, 97

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 2084, 97

Auto

26.6 14%

Teleop

125.3 68%

Endgame

32.6 18%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1761, 3958, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 3958, 8626

Auto

13.8 32%

Teleop

23.8 56%

Endgame

5.1 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.9pts

Blue projected score46.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.8
Score range: 21–218
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.5Season APEX273.3

26.6Auto13.8

125.3Teleop23.8

32.6Endgame5.1

80Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	8
teleop	168	18
endgame	36	14
foul	0	0
total	217	40

Result

Final score

217 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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