Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.59 – 107.04

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 139.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 94.16Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 68.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 63.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.1 ±9.3

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 41.69Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 6.9Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 58.45Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 238, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 238, 2423

Auto

31.8 14%

Teleop

140.0 62%

Endgame

55.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4311, 433, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 433, 1922

Auto

9.9 8%

Teleop

66.3 57%

Endgame

41.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score107pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 83–251
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX504.1

31.8Auto9.9

140Teleop66.3

55.1Endgame41.1

121Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	2
teleop	259	122
endgame	60	80
foul	0	0
total	408	204

Result

Final score

408 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 139.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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