Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.04 – 145.91

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -1.28Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 71.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 28.68Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.4 ±9.3

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 79.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 51.18Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 15.07Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 2877, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 2877, 2876

Auto

32.3 34%

Teleop

44.0 46%

Endgame

19.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 4761, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 4761, 6201

Auto

20.4 14%

Teleop

90.3 63%

Endgame

32.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.9
Score range: 75–170
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420Season APEX573.4

32.3Auto20.4

44Teleop90.3

19.3Endgame32.9

59Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	39
teleop	70	41
endgame	41	7
foul	15	20
total	161	107

Result

Final score

161 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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