Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.46 – 210.25

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.2 ±12.4

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 2.75Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 65.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 18.65Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.1 ±12.4

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 159.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 8.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 42.34Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 97, 1058, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 97, 1058, 9443

Auto

26.8 36%

Teleop

27.4 37%

Endgame

19.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 4546, 2084

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 4546, 2084

Auto

17.5 9%

Teleop

127.7 63%

Endgame

58.9 29%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.5pts

Blue projected score210.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.8
Score range: 62–234
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.2Season APEX461.1

26.8Auto17.5

27.4Teleop127.7

19.7Endgame58.9

129Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	43
teleop	39	114
endgame	3	47
foul	0	10
total	87	214

Result

Final score

87 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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