Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.78 – 59.43

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.3 ±11.7

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 14.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 63.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 60.91Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±12.8

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 41.89Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 8.48Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 9.06Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5563, 2423, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 2423, 78

Auto

32.9 26%

Teleop

84.2 65%

Endgame

11.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10912, 1761, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 1761, 11483

Auto

7.0 11%

Teleop

46.1 75%

Endgame

8.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.8pts

Blue projected score59.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.4
Score range: 34–164
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 138.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.3Season APEX263

32.9Auto7

84.2Teleop46.1

11.6Endgame8.5

165Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	9
teleop	41	3
endgame	27	2
foul	15	15
total	106	29

Result

Final score

106 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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