Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.84 – 75.11

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±11.2

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 4.65Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 116.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 69.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.2 ±12.8

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 54.35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -3.83Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 24.59Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10912, 238, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 238, 4311

Auto

28.7 16%

Teleop

95.0 54%

Endgame

51.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 3205, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 151, 3205, 8626

Auto

21.8 30%

Teleop

41.2 57%

Endgame

8.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: 46–219
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.9Season APEX348.2

28.7Auto21.8

95Teleop41.2

51.4Endgame8.8

21Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	8
teleop	81	28
endgame	45	10
foul	0	5
total	147	51

Result

Final score

147 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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