Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.06 – 123.89

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.3 ±11.2

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 44.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 23.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 7.33Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±9.8

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 42.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 66.72Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 14.38Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 10156, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 10156, 433

Auto

10.2 11%

Teleop

67.2 72%

Endgame

16.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4311, 3566, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 3566, 6201

Auto

11.1 11%

Teleop

54.5 54%

Endgame

35.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score123.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.8
Score range: 50–149
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.3Season APEX421.1

10.2Auto11.1

67.2Teleop54.5

16.1Endgame35.9

69Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	52	53
endgame	8	36
foul	5	10
total	81	121

Result

Final score

81 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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