Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.91 – 200.08

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.4 ±10.8

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 44.12Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 32.28Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 143.51Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.4 ±10.7

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 80.41Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 32.54Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 87.13Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 246, 2876, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 2876, 125

Auto

41.9 20%

Teleop

143.0 70%

Endgame

19.5 10%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 6367, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2877, 6367, 88

Auto

31.1 18%

Teleop

81.8 48%

Endgame

57.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.9pts

Blue projected score200.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 175–245
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.4Season APEX588.4

41.9Auto31.1

143Teleop81.8

19.5Endgame57.6

45Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	46
teleop	134	87
endgame	44	37
foul	0	15
total	198	185

Result

Final score

198 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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