Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.78 – 79.92

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252 ±13.3

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 12.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 60.16Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 29.39Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.7 ±11.7

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 75.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 8.08Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -3.63Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4546, 69, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 69, 9443

Auto

16.0 16%

Teleop

47.9 49%

Endgame

34.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 8626, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 8626, 5735

Auto

27.6 36%

Teleop

25.8 34%

Endgame

23.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.8pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 55–127
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252Season APEX446.7

16Auto27.6

47.9Teleop25.8

34.6Endgame23.3

79Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	56
teleop	15	21
endgame	17	12
foul	5	0
total	48	89

Result

Final score

48 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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