Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.37 – 191.84

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.8 ±13.9

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 16.06Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 15.85Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 28.46Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.1 ±11.7

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 29.48Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 31.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 130.83Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5563, 1721, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 1721, 3205

Auto

9.8 16%

Teleop

8.8 14%

Endgame

42.3 69%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2084, 151, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 151, 133

Auto

18.3 9%

Teleop

138.4 67%

Endgame

50.5 24%

Strengths

· 133 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.4pts

Blue projected score191.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.5
Score range: 35–217
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.8Season APEX422.1

9.8Auto18.3

8.8Teleop138.4

42.3Endgame50.5

118Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	16
teleop	20	176
endgame	9	47
foul	0	5
total	39	244

Result

Final score

39 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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