Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.34 – 120.78

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.3 ±9.3

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 6.38Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 134.7Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX -2.74Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.8 ±12.2

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -3.57Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 86.93Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 37.42Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 5813, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 5813, 11483

Auto

30.8 26%

Teleop

72.2 61%

Endgame

15.8 13%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 97, 5459, 3958

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 97, 5459, 3958

Auto

6.3 7%

Teleop

32.5 38%

Endgame

46.7 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 96–163
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.3Season APEX229.8

30.8Auto6.3

72.2Teleop32.5

15.8Endgame46.7

167Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	18
teleop	107	26
endgame	87	15
foul	0	35
total	199	94

Result

Final score

199 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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