Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.59 – 117.56

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±9.5

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 45.36Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 107.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX -4.6Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.3 ±9.3

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 36.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 12.6Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 68.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 125, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 125, 6731

Auto

23.1 17%

Teleop

90.7 65%

Endgame

24.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 433, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 238, 433, 78

Auto

32.1 33%

Teleop

73.4 75%

Endgame

-8.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.6pts

Blue projected score117.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 93–174
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.8Season APEX562.3

23.1Auto32.1

90.7Teleop73.4

24.9Endgame-8.2

101Consistency198

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	19
teleop	205	70
endgame	70	42
foul	5	0
total	318	131

Result

Final score

318 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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