Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.21 – 106.77

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 74.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±11.7

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 13.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 43.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 34.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.5 ±13.9

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 37.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 41.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 27.86Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 10912, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 10912, 3566

Auto

13.7 18%

Teleop

46.1 61%

Endgame

16.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4546, 246, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 246, 8626

Auto

29.8 28%

Teleop

71.8 67%

Endgame

5.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 66–132
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 137.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.8Season APEX326.5

13.7Auto29.8

46.1Teleop71.8

16.1Endgame5.4

88Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	138	12
endgame	26	22
foul	5	5
total	192	59

Result

Final score

192 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 74.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.