Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.72 – 59.6

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±13.9

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 45.86Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 17.74Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 29.12Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.3 ±12.7

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -13.58Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 80.51Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -7.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6367, 1761, 10156

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6367, 1761, 10156

Auto

-1.7 0%

Teleop

21.9 33%

Endgame

45.8 69%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 69, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 69, 5735

Auto

7.8 12%

Teleop

23.8 36%

Endgame

35.1 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.7pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 35–118
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.1Season APEX192.3

-1.7Auto7.8

21.9Teleop23.8

45.8Endgame35.1

111Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	20	47
endgame	12	24
foul	0	0
total	46	94

Result

Final score

46 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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