Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.46 – 133.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489 ±11.2

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 7.15Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 57.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 44.06Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.9 ±10.7

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 64.1Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 51.26Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 18.2Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3205, 2877, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 2877, 2423

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

49.4 46%

Endgame

44.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1058, 1922, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 1922, 1721

Auto

18.6 14%

Teleop

78.0 60%

Endgame

33.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score133.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 84–158
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489Season APEX568.9

13.6Auto18.6

49.4Teleop78

44.5Endgame33.9

222Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	23
teleop	133	75
endgame	47	57
foul	0	5
total	212	160

Result

Final score

212 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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